My Thoughts: American Presidential Primaries

[Celerity]

The first US primary will be held on Monday, February 1st, in Iowa. For those that don't know, the purpose of the primaries are to elect nominees for each of the two major political parties: the Democrats (e.g. Obama, Clinton, John F. Kennedy, Franklin Roosevelt) and Republicans (e.g. Bush, Reagan, Eisenhower). These final two nominees will then compete to become president in the November general election.

 

I'm (un)lucky enough to live in Iowa which, as the first state to vote, has a particularly powerful voice. Each state runs their primaries a little different, and in Iowa, we have something called caucuses. Caucuses are a little more involved than primaries because instead of just voting for your candidate, you have a public meeting with local people and either decide on one candidate for the whole group (democrats) or discuss then have a secret vote (republicans). My caucus area covers between 1000 - 2000 people and there are about 2000 caucuses in Iowa. Basically, Iowa will hold 2000 sites * 2 parties = 4000 little elections on Monday.

 

These elections are usually quite close. Last election in 2012, over the entire state (2000 sites), Rick Santorum won by a margin of 32 votes on the republican side. Obviously, Obama on the democratic side didn't have much competition as he was already president. In 2016, it looks like both the democrat and republican caucuses in Iowa will be very close. On the democrat side, there are three candidates, and about 95% of Iowans are split just about evenly between two of them: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. The republicans have 11 choices currently, so obviously that will be a wild fight. Probably about half the republicans will drop out within a week of Iowa if they don't do well.

 

The reason I bring all of this up is because I'd like to hear who you would all vote for and why (even if you aren't American). Of course, you can only choose one person.

I'm about 30 years old and most people of my age are democrats. We grew up during the better Clinton years (for economy) and the bad Bush wars. My generation is what propelled Obama to become president, twice. However, I'm registered as a member of the republican party. That doesn't mean that I agree with most or any of what that party says, but it does mean that I'll caucus for one of the republicans. Like most young(er) people, I'd probably really qualify as an independent, not a republican. I may be a democrat in a different election with different candidates.

 

There aren't very many female, educated, young republicans. Even fewer are active in politics. Because I live in Iowa and my rarity, I got some attention from the republican candidates. I've been approached by the Cruz, Paul, Santorum, and Trump campaigns to help them win the caucuses. Santorum was particularly interesting, because he came TO ME and had breakfast with me and a couple of others for an hour or so to recruit us. Unfortunately, I strongly disagree with him on some very important issues. He also rubbed my back during the photo.

 

I decided to support the Rand Paul campaign. It was an easy decision for me because I really only had one candidate to choose from. The only classical liberal candidate (i.g. libertarian) is Rand Paul. I happen to believe in small, limited government, foreign non-intervention (don't get involved in other country's politics), and a free economy (basically non-government intervention in business/trade/regulation). There are quite a few republicans who say they believe in small government (Cruz, for instance), but they all want to escalate the American wars, especially in the Middle East and Ukraine. So, I chose Rand Paul.

 

That doesn't mean I agree with Rand on everything. I'm pro-abortion, I'm pro-gay, and I'm very pro-Russia/China/Iran. I'm also an atheist. Yet the nice thing about libertarians is that you don't have to agree on everything...you just have to agree to not force the other to do what you think is right. Rand can be anti-gay and I can be pro-gay and it doesn't matter...we say: you decide, not the government. I also happen to agree with him very strongly on economic issues (essentially the Austrian school of economics), and since that is the most important issue for me, that is the key reason I support him.

What does it mean for me to support the Rand campaign in Iowa? It means I'm one of his 'precinct captains'. In other words, I'm just a leader for his campaign at my local caucus site. I attended some political training (at a bar) which was more fun than anything else. It was a very nice experience to be with other people who think like I do, politically or otherwise. Very few people know I'm a gamer, for instance. I think I've been quite a lonely person in my life. Anyways, as a captain I just try to recruit people to show up to vote for Rand Paul and also give a speech to convince people to join him during the caucus. I'll also do other background stuff such as verify the vote to try to stop fraud. It's really basic actually.

 

I've been fairly politically involved in other ways as a student and during my time abroad, but those are for another time.

What do you think? Who would you support and why? Do have any political experiences of your own to share?

[f0xx]

Thank you for this analysis. American elections are a VERY distant subject for me, and to be honest I am not really interested in them to begin with, but from my limited impressions I've made 2 opinions for myself:

1) I highly dislike Trump.

2) I somewhat like Rand Paul, and that's not because of your post here.

[tassinvegeta]

I see myself as a Republican with more conservative values however within REASON. Smaller government. Strong military. A Protecting the second amendment; Guns, Keeping our Judeo-Christian values. Minimizing abortions. I feel religion had and continues to have a positive impact on our values and because Americans are beginning to go away from it our nation is slowly declining. However I myself am a bit undecided as to whether God exists. I study Christianity and I believe in the principles and accomplishments of science and what historians have analyzed and discovered that has taken away from Christianity. I don't like the idea of constant government programs popping up to redistribute resources to those in need, which is usually temporarily and keeps them dependent. Rather I'd rather focus on programs designed to help the disadvantaged get the training and education to become independent and productive members of society for generations to come. War should be the last resort and those that constantly endorse conflict with Russia, China, N. Korea, and the Middle East must also realize this is going to have a terrible toll on the economy as well. You can't have it both ways. However due to WWII I see the need to keep a stronger military and guiding hand to help other nations to mature as we have. Though abortions is a terrible thing, I also realize the necessity of it. I feel the problem here isn't pro-abortion or pro-choice so much so that the real problem is our declining values that have led us to this terrible predicament. Importantly I feel that most officials, no matter there intentions, fall into the world of politics. And must worry more over money, support and their image than truly getting things done.

 

This is why Ben Carson stood out to me. However his lack of knowledge of the political system and foreign policy has taken my attention more towards Hilary Clinton. But reports of dishonesty, being difficult to work with has turned me off a bit along with her similar policies to Obama means a positive future for America however she's a politician that may be slow to enact change. This is why Bernie Sanders may very well be my choice.Even the way he speaks shows his passion for change and revolution. He has all the qualities and ideals I'm searching for and even chooses to focus on major issues few have dared to speak up against.

 

On another note: Trump would be a terrible disaster for this country. If he got elected I might even consider leaving the country. Especially if some of his policies came to pass. He reminds me of an internet troll and bully, born with a silver spoon in his mouth that's got bored and decided to run for President. If you noticed and looked into the comments section of every article involving Obama over the years. You'll see Trump represents and even quotes there wording in his speeches. And I think we all know how to describe these comment sections and the people behind them. Sorry if I offended anyone.

[f0xx]

However due to WWII I see the need to keep a stronger military and guiding hand to help other nations to mature as we have.

That comment made me cringe.

[Imoutgoodbye]

I'm happily agreeing along with Celerity on many options.  I'm also a registered Republican (have been since I was 18). Yet, I hit more independent because party platforms are often false dichotomies.  My tendency is to lean more liberal.  

 

This means I want to see the Second Amendment rewritten.  Less gun access and more gun screening.  Strip the military budget down.  We overspend on it and not enough of that money ever goes to the soldiers.  I don't want to hear the BS argument about how "guns save lives" when the same people usually say "guns don't kill, people do".  Everyone who says that sounds like a moron.  The gun is one of the most efficient killing tools an individual can own.  Certainly you have a knife in your drawer.  Take a poll on how many people can pull a trigger from 50 yards away versus how many can be within the reach of a person they want to kill and get that blood all over themselves.  Pussies.

 

I can't agree with a democracy anymore and definitely cannot agree with Libertarian values.  Government wastes tax dollars, for certain, but if you look at Flint, Michigan, that's what lack of government regulation and oversight looks like when the economy becomes the government and numbers mean more than lives.  As appealing to me as either Paul used to be, Libertarians fall off the wagon at the end of the day for me. 

 

I prefer Bernie Sanders.  His thinking falls more in line with what I'd like to see and what I don't like, I can concede on since to be the Democratic candidate, he has to move to a more moderate position on issues like gun control, which in his home state he wouldn't ever touch because he lives in a state where gun rights are highly touted by anyone who wants to get elected period.

[Naruthiron]

I should run for president.

I mean... if half the country can take a Trump candidacy seriously, I have to stand a chance, right?

[Manual Labour]

As a Canadian I do not follow the primaries super closely but I figured I'd add my 2 cents.

 

I like what I have seen and heard from Bernie because his views would fit very well in Canada. To be frank I think he is unelectable in the USA though. He is a socialist which to you guys is one step away from communism, he also wants to redistribute the wealth and hit up the rich, that most certainly will not fly and so I think he doesn't stand a chance. Ultimately I believe it will be a race between Clinton and Trump and if I had to choose between two evils in this case I would pick Trump. Better the devil you know than the devil you don't rings true to me in this case. I cannot stand Clinton and I think she would be detrimental to international affairs (specifically the middle east). At least Trump, despite being a wildcard, is rich enough to do what he wants and not be bought and sold like so many presidents past.

 

I don't actually know which, if any, of the candidates line up most with my beliefs but I think America has some serious domestic problems and from what I have observed historically America has the most trouble changing domestic policies, or if they do address them actually following through and making them work. I see the USA as a sick nation and as long as it is corporately run this will never change. The amount of money spend on the war on drugs for example is and was a farce, the war should have been on pharmaceutical companies and GMOs. The amount of money spent on health care is appalling considering how people are more and more sick. I pity the next generation which is starting to get alarming rates of adult diseases at very early ages. The USDA is totally corrupt and big agriculture business is in serious conflict of interest. Even the FDA is a huge joke, I mean look at what they have allowed to be fed to Americans over the last 6 decades. If citizens were told the truth and led by responsible government Diabetes, Heart Disease and Cancer would probably be non issues.

 

War is a tricky topic because America certainly was a major force in the world wars but this does not mean they can justifiably meddle in every international conflict, once again big business is to blame. If we made a consolidated effort internationally to move away from oil this would be a great passive way to stop a lot of conflict. Fact is most American international intervention is just about money, not about helping people.

 

Education is a serious problem from what I can gather. I have a family member who is a professor in the American academy and from what I have seen the level of literacy alone is astonishingly low. The USA is the most expensive country in the world to get an education and a lot of it seems horribly over priced. There seems to be more and more political indoctrination in early education and in my opinion this is where the left won the biggest battle. The persecution of white males in the academy is a tragedy, the whole political correctness thing has gone way too far in my opinion. I believe strongly in equal opportunity, but NOT in equal outcomes. The two are mutually exclusive. Just look at any major sporting league, that is a perfect example of equal opportunity leading to unequal outcome. How come in the other business sectors people are so obsessed with diversity? Let the best man (or woman) do the job ffs, your children's education and future rely on it!

 

Money. The root of all evil? Who knows but it is certainly the predominate religion in the USA. I see a nation of celebrity worshipping hedonists. The american dream looks like the american nightmare to me. As the rich get richer and poor get poorer so do the chances of total anarchy rise. I have no problem with people being wealthy, but the amount of irresponsible wealth is really scary to me and yet poor citizens funnel all they have left into a system that just feeds the rich. Its a cleverly designed and operated machine that just slowly bleeds people to near death but keeps them just barely alive enough so they can work and spend. Call me a pessimist but I do not think any politician in any party has the power to change the country for the better in a meaningful way. Even if they want to and get into office, they will be cock blocked totally. This is why for me the election hinges on foreign policy, because sadly that is the only place where the president has any true power. Abroad he is commander and chief, at home he is a marionette, a slave to big business and congress.

 

America is Rome in decline all over again and this looks to me like the era of mad emperors, be it Trump or Clinton to emerge first. If I were you I would not fear this election as much as the one in 4 and 8 years down the line, because the madness is only just beginning.

[Pali]

3 days and no posts? You guys suck at political debates without me and inscribed.

[Erelei]

If anyone believes Hillary is going to make the democratic candidacy, they're absolutely mad. I fear Biden might jump in though when Hillary is finally charged and indicted.

Not sure who the RNR will be, but the DNR is almost too obviously going to be Bernie or Biden if he steps up. And if he does, more than likely he'll get the nominee.

[Pali]

That's more like it.

[Imoutgoodbye]

That's more like it.

 

 

Frackin' Pali, man, frackin' Pali.  

 

[Celerity]

Today is the day! Any predictions on how Iowa is going to go?

Btw, I finally watched Harry Potter and now I understand all these references

[Mali]

Are you sure you are pro-abortion, and not pro-choice? 

[Pali]

Frackin' Pali, man, frackin' Pali.  

 

Felt like the right way to drop by and say hi.

 

Results so far look to be pretty closely divided by Cruz (29%), Trump (25%) and Rubio (21%) with the rest of the GOP candidates failing to break into double digits, while Clinton and Sanders are neck and neck on the Democratic side (poor O'Malley's not even at 1%).

[Celerity]

Are you sure you are pro-abortion, and not pro-choice? 

 

 

Yes, pro-choice. It means I'm in support of legally being able to choose to have abortions. I wrote pro-abortion to makes my stance clearer to non-native English speakers who might not know what 'pro-choice' means.

[Pali]

End result seems to be in line with the one I posted above.  Cruz won the Republican side by a few percentage points, with Trump only a point ahead of Rubio.  Clinton and Sanders are tied - this one will take til the last votes are counted to call.  Huckabee's already dropped out, O'Malley's being reported as expected to drop out.

 

My analysis?  Trump's far from done - Iowa's very religious, which probably gave Cruz and Rubio boosts that may not be repeated in other states.  The Republican game is far from over, though I expect the number of candidates to continue to drop.  For the Democrats, an effective tie probably is better news for Sanders than it is for Clinton, as the general perception is that he's the one playing catch-up - and here he caught up.

[Celerity]

Yes, it looks like Cruz won in the religious countryside of Iowa, Trump in the poorer, uneducated western areas, and third place Rubio in the cities. Bernie and Hillary are very, very close at 0.3% in Hillary's favor with 90% of the vote in. I find myself hoping that Bernie pulls the win.

 

Rand had a weak showing at 4.5%, but that speaks worse for Iowa than Rand.

 

When given the choice between putting illegal and legal immigrants in camps (Trump) or just carpet bombing civilians in other countries for religious reasons (Cruz), we can see that most Iowan Republicans choose both for the top two choices. Ho ho ho ho.

[Pali]

Not the prettiest picture ever painted of the GOP, no.

 

An interesting bit I'm reading off CBS: "Sanders is doing extremely well among younger people. He is getting the support of 84 percent of those under 30 and 58 percent of those 30 to 45. Clinton is very strong among older people; she is getting the support of 58 percent of those 45 to 64 and 69 percent of those over 65."

 

Very dramatic generation gap there.

[Mali]

I don't agree with everything on the democratic side, but I would love to see a woman as president.

 

Trump, in my opinion, is completely non-presidential and his rhetoric borders on or crosses the border to hate speech.

 

Cruz gives me the creeps, and is one of the most annoying politicians who simply does not recognize that we are a country with diversity of opinion and diversity of policy. He is big money and will be unable to compromise.

 

Rubio is charismatic, however is staunchly anti-science.

 

Hillary lacks charisma, and has made many mistakes but would be competent in the role. 

 

Bernie is cool, but very idealistic, and I am not sure if he has policies that make sense outside of Vermont.

 

In my opinion all the candidates are too focused on themselves. Let us not forget the president does not write bills. This is not a one man or woman show. Anyone in this role will have to show vision, compassion, and leadership beyond their current abilities.

 

IMHO it is mostly hype and hyperbole at the moment, on both sides.

[hotspring monkey]

 but I would love to see a woman as president.

 

I don't. Never again.

[Mali]

Who is that?

[Anume]

google is your friend. finnish ex head of state

[Mali]

i.e., completely irrelevant to the discussion.

[Erelei]

Not really. Isn't a head of state similar to a president in finland? Think he was mentioning that he'd prefer to never see a woman in that profession again.

[Mali]

There is nothing similar about U.S. politics and Finland politics. That said, there are plenty of great examples of women in politics as a counter argument if we are going there.

 

I don't necessarily favor Clinton. However, I do believe that the office should be open to women, not just on paper but in practice. 

 

Much of the hate directed at Clinton is because of her sex and because of her looks. It speaks to our backwards culture that we discuss the policies of male politicians and the looks of female politicians.