Tell me what you think about this

[f0xx]

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/04/mohammed-bin-salman-iran-israel/557036/

It's a very interesting interview I came upon that creates some mixed feelings in me, so I would like a different point of view.

What do you think?

[Fool_Hardy]

I have trouble believing the "front" put forward by most public figures. While I do not buy into all conspiracy theories, I do not dismiss them outright either. This Prince seems on the surface as if he means to make some positive changes in the region, but his lifestyle leads me to believe he likely just means to promote his own self worth.

When I was a child in America, we elected Presidents that elevated Americans on the world stage. Men of charm and wit, cunning enough to bargain for a better tomorrow, and courageous enough to make the hard choices. For the last 20 years, men of suspect character have been put to this office. For me its as if the electoral college seeks the candidate most likely to draw attention away from the house and senate for the position. Shameful and selfish intent leading a country down a path that the people fail to even recognize they are following.

While reading the article you offer, I found myself wondering if the woes plaguing America have not begun to spread on the world stage. I think you capture my opinion with the statement "creates mixed feelings in me".

That's my 2 cents anyway.

Edit: Thanks for sharing.

[Celerity]

It creates mixed feelings probably because MbS is a mixed guy.

He has a value system that is different from many Western countries. Does this make him a good or bad person? I think he wouldn't do well in the US politics with it, but that is immaterial. He is Saudi and he has the value system he needs to work in the environment in which he operates.

It isn't like our Western value systems are doing any better in the world anyways. It may very well be that the Western value system fails soon. Just take a look at the social/cultural insanity in Western countries these days. The Western value system led to the largest and most damaging wars the world has ever seen -- and that is still within living memory. Even our short-term track record is pretty horrendous. This has been happening among multiple successive leaders in multiple Western countries: a problem with the value system.

I disagree with him about Iran trying to conquer the world and the random Hitler comparison. I also believe there is plenty of evidence of the Saudis (along with many other Western countries) financing terrorists. Regardless, those are the small fish of the interview.

He is young and consolidating power. He will be spending a long time doing that. For example, when they arrested the Saudi intelligence agents over the recent journalist killing, my first thought was that MbS wanted an excuse to put his own guys into those positions. Did MbS plan for it to happen as it did? Maybe, maybe not, but he took advantage of the opportunity.

As a future monarch, he is playing the decades game. This is something that Western 'democratic' people have a tough time understanding, since most of us have little capacity for long-term thought due to our 'value system'.

All countries thrive under good leaders and crash under bad ones; the more power concentrated in the leader, the more the effect the leader has on the country. If he turns out to be an exceptional leader, he'll direct the power flows to accomplish great things for the Saudi country. To do that, he'll have to consolidate as much power as he can into himself -- since he would be a monarch, that could be a lot of direct power. This will eventually lead to the an exaggeration of the current Putin problem: his successor won't be able to handle the power as well as he did.

Even if MbS has a capable successor, that successor would be increasingly likely to fail to find another capable successor. Eventually, either MbS or one of his successors will turn out to be a bad leader and there will be an upheaval as the power restructures to compensate.

Probably all democracies too, but at least in large democracies, ability tends to be heavily moderated (neither good nor bad leaders) by the election and power moderated through 'checks and balances'. MbS rightfully has a much greater fear of a coup or other domestic upheaval.

What do I think of MbS? He is an interesting guy that has a good chance to be on the world stage for the next couple generations. Due to concentrated power, he'll be able to run circles around democracies. He has shown himself to be fond of power plays and already has made several foreign mistakes (e.g., Qatar, Yemen). In other words, he is like any other intelligent, ambitious and young leader the world has ever seen.

If he holds on to power AND manages to consolidate more power into himself (he is betting that reforms will make him so popular (domestic and foreign) as to be unassailable - a good diplomatic win (Qatar) and military win (Yemen) would solidify him as a 'great' leader), he'll lead a Saudi resurgence. That is a big 'if', especially as he is already showing some bad judgment in the aforementioned areas.

More likely, as I said earlier, he'll spend quite a long time consolidating power and making a name for himself - thus I expect Saudi Arabia to be spinning in circles during this time, not doing a lot. I imagine his power plays are trying to accelerate this process, but since they sometimes backtrack him significantly, he hasn't moved forward much (personal power advanced domestically, country itself regressed internationally). He is essentially gambling due to impatience. This isn't a man satisfied with steady, incremental advancements.

So far, Saudi Arabia has lost a lot of regional influence and wealth under his pseudo-leadership and Iran has gained considerably. While this is normal during a succession, his early career hasn't been successful by his own power metrics. Maybe there will be a reversal when Iran undergoes a similar succession, if MbS is consolidated in time.

late edit: typos